This year’s race is extremely tight, with victory in sight for either Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Photo BBC
This year’s race is extremely tight, with victory in sight for either Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are likely to be the ones that decide who wins the White House, and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver has predicted that Trump could win all of them. Here are the polls.
Arizona Poll
As of October 28, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight said Mr. Trump was leading with 48.7%, compared to Ms. Harris’s 46.8%, and the three latest polls also showed Mr. Trump leading.
Similarly, the Trafalgar Group, a political consulting firm, found Mr. Trump had 48% support and Ms. Harris had 46% among 1,094 respondents between Oct. 24 and 26. The survey had a margin of error of 2.9%.
Mr Trump also holds a 2-point lead (48% – 46%) in a poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies in partnership with The Telegraph.
The UK-based research and markets firm surveyed 7,362 likely voters in swing states across seven swing states from October 20 to 22. Redfield and Wilton Strategies did not deny its margin of error, but said: “In every state polled, the candidates were either tied or within the margin of error for either Trump or Harris.”
Marist College, which conducted its latest poll earlier this month, from October 17 to 22, also found Trump leading, but by a margin of 1 point (50% to 49%). About 1,193 people were polled, and the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.
Georgia Poll
FiveThirtyEight averages Trump’s lead in Georgia at 48.6% as of Monday, and while the two latest polls also show Trump ahead, another poll shows him and Harris tied.
Of the 1,087 people surveyed by Trafalgar Group between October 24 and October 26, 48% said they would vote for Mr. Trump and 46% said they would vote for Ms. Harris. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
In a poll of 1,168 people in swing states conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Mr. Trump won 48% compared to Ms. Harris’s 46%.
But Marist College found support for both candidates to be about even, with 49% backing each of the 1,193 people surveyed from Oct. 17 to Oct. 22. The poll had a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Ms. Harris has a narrow lead in Michigan with 47.6% compared to Mr. Trump’s 47.3%, but the three most recent polls have shown Mr. Trump leading in two and tied in one.
Political consulting firm Insider Advantage found that 48.4% of 800 likely voters it interviewed from October 26 to October 17 supported Mr. Trump while 47.4% supported Ms. Harris. The poll has a margin of error of 3.46%.
The conservative polling organization Patriot Polling found Trump leading 50% to Harris’s 49% after interviewing 796 registered voters from October 24 to October 26. The margin of error was 3%.
Meanwhile, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll of swing states, which surveyed 1,115 people for a study in Michigan, found Mr Trump and Ms Harris tied at 47%.
Nevada Poll
FiveThirtyEight gave Mr. Trump a 0.2% margin, with a slight lead of 47.5% to Ms. Harris’s 47.3%, as of Sunday. Like Michigan, two of the last three polls showed Mr. Trump leading, and the candidates were neck and neck in the third.
Redfield and Wilton Strategies put Trump at 47% and Harris at 46%, after interviewing 540 likely voters, while OnMessage put Trump at 50% and Harris at 46%, after interviewing 600 people from October 19 to 22. The margin of error is 4%.
Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris scored 48% in the InsiderAdvantage survey conducted from October 19 to 20 of 800 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.52%.
North Carolina Poll
Mr. Trump also leads in North Carolina, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, with 48.4% to Ms. Harris’s 47.1% as of Monday. Mr. Trump has also led in each of the last three polls.
Emerson College polled 950 likely voters from Oct. 21 to 22 and found that Mr. Trump led with 50 percent, while Ms. Harris trailed by 2 points with 48 percent. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.
Similarly, Mr. Trump had 50% to Ms. Harris’s 48% in a Marist College poll conducted from Oct. 17 to 22 among 1,226 likely voters. The margin of error was 3.6 percentage points.
In the Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, which surveyed 679 likely voters, Trump led Harris by 1 percentage point at 48%.
Pennsylvania Poll
Mr. Trump has another slim advantage in FiveThirtyEight’s Pennsylvania polls — 48% to 47.7% for Ms. Harris as of Monday. Ms. Harris has led by 1 point in each of the last three polls.
InsiderAdvantage, which polled 800 likely voters from Oct. 26 to 27, found Trump with 48 percent to Harris’s 47 percent, while EmersonCollege, which polled 860 likely voters from Oct. 21 to 22, found Trump with 51 percent to Harris’s 49 percent. The margins of error for each poll are 3.46 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
In a poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, which asked 1,586 likely voters, Ms. Harris led with 48% while Mr. Trump had 47%.
Wisconsin Poll
According to FiveThirtyEight, as of October 28, Ms. Harris had a slight lead in Wisconsin, with 47.9% compared to Mr. Trump’s 47.8%, but Mr. Trump has led in the two most recent polls of this state.
Suffolk University, in partnership with USA Today, surveyed 500 likely voters from Oct. 20 to 23 and found that 48% supported Trump and 47% supported Harris. The margin of error was 4.4 percentage points.
Of 800 likely voters polled by Emerson College between Oct. 21 and 22, 50% supported Mr. Trump and 49% supported Ms. Harris. The margin of error was 3.4 percentage points.
In a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll of 557 people from October 20 to 22, Ms. Harris won 49% compared to Mr. Trump’s 47%.
Are polls important?
Both candidates have enjoyed significant leads throughout this election after Ms Harris narrowed the gap between Mr Trump and former Democratic nominee President Joe Biden.
University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss told Newsweek that poll results “will fluctuate quite a bit between now and Election Day.”
“There will be some wiggle room in trying to come up with explanations for every up and down swing in a candidate’s polls, but most of the time, short-term fluctuations in polls are meaningless. People who respond to polls don’t make their decisions the same way that people who ultimately vote do,” he said.
